Utah law was part of a surge in policy proposals banning transgender girls from participating in K-12 athletics. The bill was introduced in 36 state legislatures. Fifteen states have legally enacted these bans, but some have been challenged in court. For example, HB391, Alabama, states: “Public K-12 schools attend, sponsor, or provide coach staff for interdisciplinary athletics events where athletes can compete with athletes of different biological genders. Cannot be done. “
Some scholars asked if these policies were appropriate. Others have investigated a deeper link to racism. But what do Americans generally think of these bans?
The SSRS Omnibus Panel conducted a survey of 1,000 American adults from May 6-9, 2022. Of these, 970 respondents were polled via the web and 30 by phone. All interviews were conducted in English. The data are weighted to probability of choice and demographic targets for the US adult population.
Of the 1,000 interviewed, 59% opposed or strongly opposed the ban on transgender girls from participating in K-12 athletics, 29% opposed and 30% strongly opposed. 41% supported or strongly supported the ban, 18% in favor and 23% strongly in favor. This is a difference of 18 percentage points.
In other words, these policies do not seem to actually represent the attitude of the United States. why?
Socially conservative views tend to be overestimated in public debates on LGBTQ issues.
Recent political studies have shown that such policies are not due to the public attitude towards LGBTQ rights, but to conservative leaders promoting the policy agenda. Prominent conservatives tend to mobilize Republicans to propose and sometimes pass policies that go against the grain of public opinion. Moreover, as elected officials of each party take deep opposition to transgender rights, general voters tend to follow their leadership and adopt those positions on their own.
That’s what our research found. Ordinary Republicans and Democrats disagreed with transgender rights, independent opinions were close to those of Democrats, and Republicans were outliers. Republicans’ views are far from both Democrats and Independents on these bans. As you can see from the figure below, the Republican opinion is 20 percentage points away from the Democratic opinion and 18 percentage points away from the independent opinion.Still, Republicans are virtually evenly divided About these issues. Obviously, these proposals are endorsed by factions within the Republican Party. They may have something to do with prominent social conservatives who are influencing some of the Republicans.
These polls may explain why Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb, as well as Cox, feels that some Republican governors can veto these total bans.
Cox went a step further. Not only did he reject the bill, he sought to negotiate a compromise somewhere between total ban and full inclusion. The proposed compromise is detailed in Cox’s letter explaining why he rejected the bill, involving transgender health and sports medical professionals and examining the case of transgender girls individually. I checked if she could compete. The rules advocated by competitive sports organizations such as the International Olympic Committee take into account tensions between the principle of indiscrimination and inclusion and concerns about fair competition in sports where strength is an important attribute. And then such a compromise is included.
However, both supporters of and against these bans seem uninterested in finding a compromise. Instead of compromising, Utah Republicans overturned the governor’s veto.
Americans really don’t like the compromise of transgender sports bans
Supporters aren’t the only ones who don’t want to compromise. Americans are also uncommon. As you can see in the figure below, 65% of Americans are against policies that seek compromise, and only 35% support them.
However, Democrats are far more willing to compromise than independents and Republicans, with 48% saying they support the compromise. This may be because some people think the problem raises legitimate fairness concerns, or at least some people think the topic is too complex to reduce to simple correctness. Moreover, conservatives hate the idea of compromise more than the liberals, especially the problems they see in the basic idea of good and evil. 71% of the very conservative adults in our sample strongly opposed the compromise of transgender girls in K-12 sports, compared to only 16% of the very liberal adults.
Those who strongly support or strongly oppose these bans are most reluctant to compromise. These advocates make deep claims about either broad exclusion or broad inclusion.
Policy struggle continues
In other words, the position of political leaders is echoing the American people. But Republicans, who make up the majority of the legislature, overestimate the minority’s view. This disagreement between public opinion and public policy further states that the legislature, which theoretically represents the views of their members, instead enacts more conservative policies than their voters really want. I will clarify.
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Andrew R. Flores (@DrAndrewFlores) is an assistant professor of government at American University and a visiting scholar at the Williams Institute at UCLA Law School.
Donald P. Heider-Markel (@Dhmarkel) is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.
Daniel C. Lewis He is an associate professor and dean of the Faculty of Political Science at Siena University.
Patrick R. Miller He is an associate professor of political science at the University of Kansas.
Jami K. Taylor He is a professor of political science at the University of Toledo and a director of the Master of Public Administration program.
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